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Amy Tsui, “China Will Begin Sooner Rather Than Later Gradual Currency Adjustment, Bergsten Says”
Posted on November 30th, 2009 1 commentChina Will Begin Sooner Rather Than Later Gradual Currency Adjustment, Bergsten Says
Daily Report for Executives
11/24/2009
Amy Tsui
The Chinese leadership has genuinely bought into rebalancing its economy toward a domestic-led growth economy and will sooner, rather than later, allow a gradual 6 to 7 percent appreciation of the Chinese currency, C. Fred Bergsten, director of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, said Nov. 20.
“I’m convinced, maybe I’m naive, but I’m convinced, that the Chinese leadership, and more broadly Chinese society, has accepted the fundamental wisdom of rebalancing their growth pattern in favor of domestic demand and particularly consumer-led growth rather than relying on export-led growth,” Bergsten said at a meeting at the George Washington University’s Elliot School of International Affairs.
He said he would prefer a quicker transition, more along the lines of 10 percent appreciation over two years, but said that 6-7 percent appreciation over three years should serve to rebalance the U.S.-Chinese trade deficit in about three years.
China was “definitely in the wrong” for having a drastically undervalued currency, Bergsten said. “Massive intervention to keep your currency undervalued and run huge trade surpluses when you’re the world’s most competitive country and most rapidly growing trading country is just wrong policy and violates the fundamental norms” of both the International Monetary Fund and World Trade Organization systems, he said.Some Progress on Currency
Even before the current financial crisis, Bergsten said, China had already begun to recognize some of the downsides of export-led growth with poor job creation, overly energy intensive industry, pollution, and problems with trading partners.
He said the Chinese would begin the appreciation of their currency to address pending inflation and to begin making the necessary structural changes to move toward a consumer-led growth economy. Prior to the financial crisis, China had made some progress on the undervaluation of its currency, and the trade imbalances between the United States and China are down from their peak three or four years ago, Bergsten said.Undervalued by 40 Percent
He said as of today, by Peterson Institute calculations, the Chinese currency was now undervalued by 20 percent on a trade-weighted basis, and about 40 percent against the dollar.
“The one big global misalignment is the undervaluation of the RMB and the six to eight Asian currencies that are essentially pegged to the RMB,” Bergsten said.
The dollar is at equilibrium levels against the euro and the Canadian dollar, according to Bergsten. “There’s no generalized dollar overvaluation anymore, even though the U.S. is still running a current account deficit of maybe 3 percent of GDP,” he said.
Bergsten did not absolve the United States of responsibility for the financial crisis, saying that it needed to boost its savings rate. He said the United States needed to be heard from in addressing its own problems in the relationship.G-2 Concept Seen to Develop
Bergsten characterized the macroeconomic relationship between the United States and China as being one of the least successful aspects in the beginning development of a so-called “G-2 relationship.” Bergsten introduced the concept of a relationship between the United States and China as the only two national superpowers in the world some five years ago.
In response to statements by U.S. and Chinese officials during President Obama’s visit to China last week that there was no G-2 relationship between the United States and China, Bergsten said that it was politically expedient for both sides to deny any such relationship. He said he, too, would deny a relationship given the political sensitivities of other countries to the idea that the United States and China could form an alliance that would dictate the terms of international agreements such as the climate change discussions taking place in Copenhagen.
Bergsten said U.S. and Chinese sniping over trade could simply be good cover for a G-2 relationship and that he believed the G-2 concept was being implemented in practice.
The area of climate change shows that a G-2 could provide a better outcome for international agreements as a whole, with the United States working well with China on such issues. It would help global and international system work better, supplementing and not supplanting the existing structures, Bergsten said. -
Keith Bradsher, “Recovery Picks Up in China as U.S. Still Ails”
Posted on September 18th, 2009 No commentsRecovery Picks Up in China as U.S. Still Ails, New York TimesKeith BradsherPublished: September 17, 2009WUXI, China — Just eight months ago, thousands of Chinese workers rioted outside factories closed by the global downturn.
Now many of those plants have reopened and are hiring again. Some executives are even struggling to find enough temporary staff to fill Christmas orders.
The image of laid-off workers here returning to jobs stands in sharp contrast to the United States, where even as the economy shows signs of improvement, the unemployment rate continues to march toward double digits.
In China, even the hardest-hit factories — those depending on exports to the United States and Europe — are starting to rehire workers. No one here is talking about a jobless recovery.
Even the real estate market is picking up. In this industrial town 90 miles northwest of Shanghai, prospective investors lined up one recent Saturday to buy apartments in the still-unfinished Rose Avenue complex. Many of them slept outside the sales office all night.
“The whole country’s economy is back on track,” said Shi Yingyi, a 34-year-old housewife who joined the throng. “I feel more confident now.”
The confidence stems from China’s three-pronged effort — a combination of stimulus, liberal bank lending and broad government support for exports.
The Chinese central bank said the country’s economy surged at an annualized rate of 14.9 percent in the second quarter. The United States economy shrank at an annual rate of 1 percent in that period.
“So often China and the U.S. are mixed together as being in the same situation, and that is totally wrong,” said Xu Xiaonian, an economist in Beijing with the China Europe International Business School.
That does not mean the two nations are not connected, of course. China’s rebound in growth may slow if the American economy does not pick up. China needs the United States to buy its goods, and the United States needs China to continue to buy its debt.
This mutual dependence makes it harder for either country to let the current dispute over Chinese tires and American chicken and auto parts to grow into a trade war.
But with more centralized economic planning than the United States, China has been able to disburse its stimulus much faster, turning it into new rail lines and highways.
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Martin Wolf, “Wheel of Fortune Turns as China Outdoes West”
Posted on September 14th, 2009 No commentsWheel of Fortune Turns as China Outdoes West, Financial Times
By Martin Wolf
Published: September 14 2009 03:00 | Last updated: September 14 2009 03:00
China has emerged as the most significant winner from the financial and economic crisis. At the end of 2008, many questioned whether China would achieve its growth target of 8 per cent in 2009. Who now dares to do so?
Cushioned by its more than $2,100bn (€1,440bn, £1,260bn) of foreign currency reserves, huge trade and current account surpluses and a robust fiscal position, Beijing has been able to deploy all its levers over the financial system and the economy.
Meanwhile, as one senior Chinese participant at the World Economic Forum’s annual meeting of “the new champions”, in Dalian, noted, “the teachers have made big mistakes”. Indeed, any visitor to Asia will recognise the west’s reputation for financial and economic competence is in tatters, while that of China has soared. The wheel of fortune is turning.
Three immediate questions arise. How has China responded to the crisis? Is its resurgent growth sustainable? How far will its recovery help the world economy?
The answer to the first question is: astonishingly. According to data reported at the end of last week, industrial output expanded 12.3 per cent in the 12 months to August, up from a 10.8 per cent increase in July. This is the fastest growth for a year.
Behind this is growth of bank credit at close to 30 per cent, year-on-year, since March 2009. It is no surprise, then, that fixed- asset investment has also been growing at over 30 per cent, year-on-year, since March and by 33 per cent in the year to August. Year-on-year growth for the second quarter of 2009 was 7.9 per cent, up from 6.1 per cent in the first quarter. Third-quarter figures seem sure to be higher still.
The expectation now is that China will achieve the 8 per cent target by a comfortable margin. In February, March and April of this year, the consensus forecast of China’s growth was “only” 7 per cent. By August, this was up to 8.3 per cent, with a further 9.3 per cent expected in 2010.
Is this growth surge sustainable? In a word, yes. Inevitably, the torrid growth of bank credit and money is spilling over into asset prices, particularly equities. But there is little danger of excessive inflation in an economy with an appreciating currency, fully embedded in a world economy still threatened more by deflation than by inflation, at least in the near term. Moreover, the government is solvent. As premier Wen Jiabao noted in Dalian, “we . . . kept budget deficit and government debt at around 3 per cent and 20 per cent of the GDP respectively”. Should bad loans increase, China is well able to recapitalise its financial system. Concern should be with whether the growth pattern is desirable. In his speech, Mr Wen stressed the breadth of the stimulus package. But its driving force remains: fixed investment. This carries three risks: it is likely to exacerbate excess capacity, generating a need for still greater stimulus spending or a surge in exports; it may prove less than ideal for job creation; and may thwart a shift towards a more consumption-driven economy.
Finally, however successful China is in promoting domestic demand, it will not be the locomotive for the world economy. True, China’s merchandise trade surplus has indeed been narrowing: it was $35bn in the second quarter, 40 per cent lower than a year earlier. China’s current account surplus is also shrinking: it may be down to 6 per cent of gross domestic product this year, from 11 per cent in 2007.
Yet, since it still only generates some 8 per cent of world output, China is too small to act as the world’s locomotive. Even halving its external surplus would add only 0.4 per cent to aggregate demand in the rest of the world.
China’s response to this crisis is significant. It has prospered, while advanced countries floundered. China has noticed. So must its partners.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/523fdcbe-a0c5-11de-b9ef-00144feabdc0.html?nclick_check=1
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Timothy F. Geithner, “The United States and China, Cooperating for Recovery and Growth”
Posted on August 13th, 2009 No commentsThe United States and China, Cooperating for Recovery and Growth
Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner
Speech at Peking University – Beijing, China
June 1st, 2009http://www.treas.gov/press/releases/tg152.htm
It is a pleasure to be back in China and to join you here today at this great university.
I first came to China, and to Peking University, in the summer of 1981 as a college student studying Mandarin. I was here with a small group of graduate and undergraduate students from across the United States. I returned the next summer to Beijing Normal University.
We studied reasonably hard, and had the privilege of working with many talented professors, some of whom are here today. As we explored this city and traveled through Eastern China, we had the chance not just to understand more about your history and your aspirations, but also to begin to see the United States through your eyes.
Over the decades since, we have seen the beginnings of one of the most extraordinary economic transformations in history. China is thriving. Economic reform has brought exceptionally rapid and sustained growth in incomes. China’s emergence as a major economic force more fully integrated into the world economy has brought substantial benefits to the United States and to economies around the world.
In recognition of our mutual interest in a positive, cooperative, and comprehensive relationship, President Hu Jintao and President Obama agreed in April to establish the Strategic and Economic Dialogue. Secretary Clinton and I will host Vice Premier Wang and State Councilor Dai in Washington this summer for our first meeting. I have the privilege of beginning the economic discussions with a series of meetings in Beijing today and tomorrow.
These meetings will give us a chance to discuss the risks and challenges on the economic front, to examine some of the longer term challenges we both face in laying the foundation for a more balanced and sustainable recovery, and to explore our common interest in international financial reform.
Current Challenges and Risks
The world economy is going through the most challenging economic and financial stress in generations.
The International Monetary Fund predicts that the world economy will shrink this year for the first time in more than six decades. The collapse of world trade is likely to be the worst since the end of World War II. The lost output, compared to the world economy’s potential growth in a normal year, could be between three and four trillion dollars.
In the face of this challenge, China and the United States are working together to help shape a strong global strategy to contain the crisis and to lay the foundation for recovery. And these efforts, the combined effect of forceful policy actions here in China, in the United States, and in other major economies, have helped slow the pace of deterioration in growth, repair the financial system, and improve confidence.
In fact, what distinguishes the current crisis is not just its global scale and its acute severity, but the size and speed of the global response.
At the G-20 Leaders meeting in London in April, we agreed on an unprecedented program of coordinated policy actions to support growth, to stabilize and repair the financial system, to restore the flow of credit essential for trade and investment, to mobilize financial resources for emerging market economies through the international financial institutions, and to keep markets open for trade and investment.
That historic accord on a strategy for recovery was made possible in part by the policy actions already begun in China and the United States.
China moved quickly as the crisis intensified with a very forceful program of investments and financial measures to strengthen domestic demand.
In the United States, in the first weeks of the new Administration, we put in place a comprehensive program of tax incentives and investments – the largest peace time recovery effort since World War II – to help arrest the sharp fall in private demand. Alongside these fiscal measures, we acted to ease the housing crisis. And we have put in place a series of initiatives to bring more capital into the banking system and to restart the credit markets.
These actions have been reinforced by similar actions in countries around the world.
In contrast to the global crisis of the 1930s and to the major economic crises of the postwar period, the leaders of the world acted together. They acted quickly. They took steps to provide assistance to the most vulnerable economies, even as they faced exceptional financial needs at home. They worked to keep their markets open, rather than retreating into self-defeating measures of discrimination and protection.
And they have committed to make sure this program of initiatives is sustained until the foundation for recovery is firmly established, a commitment the IMF will monitor closely, and that we will be able to evaluate together when the G-20 Leaders meet again in the United States this fall.
We are starting to see some initial signs of improvement. The global recession seems to be losing force. In the United States, the pace of decline in economic activity has slowed. Households are saving more, but consumer confidence has improved, and spending is starting to recover. House prices are falling at a slower pace and the inventory of unsold homes has come down significantly. Orders for goods and services are somewhat stronger. The pace of deterioration in the labor market has slowed, and new claims for unemployment insurance have started to come down a bit.
The financial system is starting to heal. The clarity and disclosure provided by our capital assessment of major U.S. banks has helped improve market confidence in them, making it possible for banks that needed capital to raise it from private investors and to borrow without guarantees. The securities markets, including the asset backed securities markets that essentially stopped functioning late last year, have started to come back. The cost of credit has fallen substantially for businesses and for families as spreads and risk premia have narrowed.
These are important signs of stability, and assurance that we will succeed in averting financial collapse and global deflation, but they represent only the first steps in laying the foundation for recovery. The process of repair and adjustment is going to take time.
China, despite your own manifest challenges as a developing country, you are in an enviably strong position. But in most economies, the recession is still powerful and dangerous. Business and households in the United States, as in many countries, are still experiencing the most challenging economic and financial pressures in decades.
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Rebalancing the world economy: China-The spend is nigh, The Economist
Posted on August 10th, 2009 No commentsRebalancing the world economy: China-The spend is nigh, The Economist
Jul 30th 2009 | HONG KONG
A REBALANCED global economy requires America to consume less and save more. That means the world’s three big surplus economies—China, Germany and Japan—will have to save less and spend more. None is under more scrutiny than China, whose vast current-account surplus has been fingered by some as the ultimate cause of the financial crisis. The case against China is exaggerated but a surplus of more than $400 billion in 2008, or 10% of GDP, was clearly too big. Can China right its trade imbalances, and if so, how will it achieve rapid growth in future?
The good news is that the surplus is already shrinking. The strong rebound in China’s economy in the second quarter—pushing GDP 7.9% higher than a year ago—came entirely from domestic demand. This sucked in more imports, while exports continued to slump. China’s merchandise trade surplus narrowed to $35 billion in the same quarter, 40% down on a year earlier. Yu Song and Helen Qiao of Goldman Sachs calculate that the decline is even more impressive in real terms (adjusting for changes in export and import prices), with the surplus shrinking to less than one-third of its level a year ago (see chart 1). They even suggest that a monthly trade deficit is possible within the next year.

Another way to look at the huge swing in China’s trade is that net exports (exports minus imports) contributed 2.6 percentage points of the country’s GDP growth in 2007, but shaved almost three points off its growth in the first half of this year.
Most economists think that China’s trade surplus will remain large. The jump in imports in the second quarter included heavy stockpiling of commodities, which will not last; copper imports, for example, were 150% higher than a year ago. Yet the underlying surplus is clearly shrinking. Paul Cavey of Macquarie Securities forecasts that China’s current-account surplus will fall to under 6% of GDP this year and 4% in 2010, down from a peak of 11% in 2007. Exports amounted to 35% of GDP in 2007; this year, reckons Mr Cavey, that ratio will drop to 24.5%.
On the surface, therefore, China is fulfilling the long-standing demand of Western governments that it shift its engine of growth from exports to domestic demand. Thanks to the biggest fiscal stimulus and loosening of credit of any large economy, China’s real domestic demand is likely to grow by at least 10% this year. In fact, the popular perception that China has always relied on export-led growth is rather misleading. Its current-account surplus did soar from 2005 onwards but until then was rather modest. And over the past ten years net exports accounted, on average, for only one-tenth of its growth.
The problem is more that the mix of domestic demand between consumption and investment is unbalanced, and becoming even more so. In 2008 private consumption accounted for only 35% of GDP, down from 49% in 1990 (see chart 2). By contrast, investment had risen from 35% to 44% of GDP. This year the bulk of the government’s stimulus is going into infrastructure, further swelling investment’s share. Chinese capital spending could exceed that in America for the first time, while its consumer spending will be only one-sixth as large. This is China’s most glaring economic imbalance.

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The First U.S.-China Strategic and Economic Dialogue Economic Track Joint Fact Sheet
Posted on July 30th, 2009 No commentsThe First U.S.-China Strategic and Economic Dialogue Economic Track Joint Fact Sheet
As special representatives of President Barack H. Obama and President Hu Jintao, U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner and Chinese Vice Premier Wang Qishan concluded the first meeting of the Economic Track under the U.S.-China Strategic and Economic Dialogue in Washington today.
On the U.S. side, they were joined by the following Cabinet members and other senior officials:
- Secretary of Agriculture Thomas Vilsack
- Secretary of Labor Hilda Solis
- Secretary of Transportation Raymond LaHood
- Chair of the Council of Economic Advisors Christina Romer
- Director of Office of Management and Budget Peter Orszag
- U.S. Trade Representative Ronald Kirk
- Director of the National Economic Council and Assistant to the President for Economic Policy Lawrence Summers
- Chairman of the Federal Reserve Ben Bernanke
- Chair of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation Sheila Bair
- Chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission Mary Schapiro
- Chairman of Commodity Futures Trading Commission Gary Gensler
- Chairman and President of the Export-Import Bank Fred Hochberg
On the Chinese side, they were joined by the following Ministers and other senior officials:
- Minister of Finance Xie Xuren
- Governor of the People’s Bank of China Zhou Xiaochuan
- Chairman of the China Banking Regulatory Commission Liu Mingkang
- Chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission Chairman Shang Fulin
- Chinese Ambassador to the United States Zhou Wenzhong
- Deputy Secretary-General of the State Council Bi Jingquan
- Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs He Yafei
- Vice Minister of the National Development and Reform Commission Zhang Xiaoqiang
- Vice Minister of Human Resources and Social Security Wang Xiaochu
- Vice Minister of Transport Weng Mengyong
- Vice Minister of Agriculture Niu Dun
- Vice Minister of Commerce Ma Xiuhong
- Vice Minister of Health Yin Li
- Vice Chairman of the China Insurance Regulatory Commission Li Kemu
- President of the Export-Import Bank of China Li Ruogu
I. Sustainable and Balanced Economic Growth
The United States and China have responded to the global economic crisis with comprehensive stimulus measures that have played a critical role in boosting confidence and supporting global demand, and will respectively take measures to promote balanced and sustainable economic growth in our domestic economies both to ensure a strong recovery from the international financial crisis and to bring about more balanced and sustainable global economic growth after a global recovery is firmly established. To this end, both countries will enhance communication and the exchange of information regarding macro-economic policy, and will work together to pursue policies of adjusting domestic demand and relative prices to lead to more sustainable and balanced trade and growth. Both sides will also pursue forward-looking monetary policies with due regard for the ramifications of those policies for the international economy. In addition, they will encourage new approaches to infrastructure financing to assist with economic recovery.
The United States will take measures to increase national saving as a share of GDP. The U.S. household saving rate has already risen sharply as a result of the crisis, contributing to a significant decline in the U.S. current account deficit, and the United States will adopt policies that will continue to encourage household saving. The United States will also reform its health care system with the aim of controlling rising health care costs for businesses and government while assuring high-quality, affordable health care for all Americans, and is committed to reducing the federal budget deficit relative to GDP to a sustainable level by 2013.
China will continue to implement structural and macroeconomic policies to stimulate domestic demand and increase the contribution of consumption to GDP growth. China will further enhance access in its service market and expand areas and channels for non-government investment, with a view to expedite the development of its services industry and increase the share of services in GDP. China will also deepen social safety net reform, including strengthening its basic old-age insurance system and enterprise annuities.
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Joint Press Release on the First Round of the U.S.-China Strategic and Economic Dialogue
Posted on July 29th, 2009 No commentsJoint Press Release on the First Round of the U.S.-China Strategic and Economic Dialogue
The first round of the U.S.-China Strategic and Economic Dialogue was held in Washington, D.C. from 27 to 28 July, 2009. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton and Secretary of the Treasury Timothy F. Geithner, as special representatives of President Barack Obama, and Vice Premier Wang Qishan and State Councilor Dai Bingguo, as special representatives of Chinese President Hu Jintao, co-chaired the Dialogue, which included Strategic and Economic tracks under this framework. President Hu Jintao sent a congratulatory message for the opening of the Dialogue. President Barack Obama personally appeared at the opening session to deliver a speech and met the Chinese delegation. During the Dialogue, the two sides had a candid and in-depth exchange of views on the strategic, long-term and overarching issues concerning the development of bilateral relations. Both sides recognized that the Dialogue offers a unique forum to promote understanding, expand common ground, reduce differences, enhance mutual trust, and step up cooperation. The Dialogue helps to address shared challenges such as the global financial crisis, regional security concerns, global sustainable development, and climate change. The Dialogue is a reflection of the progress in the U.S.-China relationship over the course of the last thirty years and represents the two sides’ shared commitment to build a positive, cooperative and comprehensive relationship for the 21st century. This inaugural round of the Dialogue produced positive results and defined the path that will guide the two sides’ efforts into the future.
I. On U.S.-China Relations
As a result of two days of high-level meetings, both sides gave a positive assessment of the current development of U.S.-China relations. They recognized that U.S.-China relations have maintained strong, positive momentum. In particular, the meeting between President Barack Obama and President Hu Jintao in London in April charted the course for the growth of U.S.-China relations in a new era and provided a strong impetus to deepen mutually beneficial cooperation. The two sides also affirmed that the Dialogue provides an important framework for strengthening relations on the basis of the April Summit.
The two sides noted that, at a time of continued challenges in international financial markets, and when the international situation is undergoing complex and profound changes, the United States and China share ever more important responsibilities, extensive common interests, and a broader basis for cooperation. Increased U.S.-China cooperation not only serves the common interests of the two peoples, but also contributes to peace, stability and prosperity of the Asia-Pacific region and the world at large.
The two sides stressed that close high-level contacts and exchanges play an irreplaceable role in developing U.S.-China relations and confirmed that President Barack Obama will visit China this year at the invitation of President Hu Jintao. The two sides will work together to prepare well for upcoming bilateral interactions at various levels.
The two sides welcomed recent improvements in military-to-military relations and agreed that the two militaries would expand exchanges at all levels. The two sides gave a positive assessment of the results of the recent Ministry of National Defense-Defense Department co-led Defense Consultative Talks (DCT) in Beijing. The two sides noted that Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission General Xu Caihou is going to visit the United States within this year at the invitation of Defense Secretary Robert Gates.
All participants expressed willingness to encourage U.S.-China cultural and people-to-people exchanges and cooperation, particularly youth exchanges, as well as the U.S.-China Friendship Volunteers Program, to enhance mutual understanding. The Chinese side welcomed the U.S. reaffirmation of its participation with a national pavilion in the Shanghai World Expo 2010, which was made official on July 10, 2009. The U.S. side also described new policies being developed to expedite visa processing for Chinese citizens to visit the United States and committed to maintain close consultation on this issue. The Chinese side reiterated that it hopes the U.S. side will further facilitate visa processing for Chinese citizens to visit the United States. The two sides intend to build on our already growing educational, athletic, scientific and technological exchanges, and to continue to hold the U.S.-China Cultural Forum. The two sides are committed to carrying out their shared education goals laid out in the U.S.-China Work Plan, which was recently signed by the educational authorities of the two countries.
The two sides also discussed ways to enhance mutual understanding and positive cooperation on human rights issues through our Human Rights Dialogue and other initiatives on the basis of equality and mutual respect. In light of the importance of the rule of law to our two countries, the United States and China decided to reconvene the U.S.-China Legal Experts Dialogue and will seek to hold the next Human Rights Dialogue before the end of the year.
II. On U.S.-China Cooperation in Economic, Financial and Other Sectors
The Economic Track of the first U.S.-China Strategic and Economic Dialogue has enhanced bilateral communications, and our mutual understanding and trust.
Recognizing that cooperation on economic and financial issues is important to the health of the world economy, both sides re-affirmed their commitment to sustained high level dialogue and reached consensus on important outcomes.
First, the United States and China will respectively take measures to promote balanced and sustainable economic growth in our domestic economies to ensure a strong recovery from the international financial crisis; these include measures to increase savings in the United States and the contribution of consumption to GDP growth in China.
Second, both sides will work together to build a sound financial system, and improve financial regulation and supervision.
Third, both sides are committed to more open trade and investment and to fighting protectionism to promote economic growth, job creation and innovation.
Fourth, both sides pledged to cooperate on reforming and strengthening the international financial institutions to increase the voice and representation of emerging and developing economies, including China, and to ensure adequate financing for development and to respond to future crises.
Upon conclusion of the Economic Track, the United States and China released a Joint Fact Sheet.
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Ben Simpfendorfer, “Chinese exports could crush fragile markets”
Posted on June 30th, 2009 No commentsChinese exports could crush fragile markets, Financial Times
Ben Simpfendorfer
Published: June 29 2009 12:51 | Last updated: June 29 2009 12:51
Talk of a “G2” is fashionable, and with good reason. The trip by Tim Geithner, US Treasury secretary, to Beijing last month underscored the substantial economic and financial interests at stake in the US-China relationship. His trip also signalled growing co-ordination between the two sides. The US avoided criticising an undervalued renminbi, while China committed itself to the dollar and its massive holdings of US government debt.
This change in focus is reflected at an institutional level in China. There is a growing body of research, for example, published by academic and official institutions, looking at China’s purchases of US government debt and the implications of the Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing. There is also anecdotal evidence that the same institutions are focusing more attention on G2-related issues at the expense of other countries.
The change makes sense, as the economic crisis has provided China with an opportunity to assert its economic influence. The push to test renminbi trade settlement, for example, is partly driven by pragmatic interests in reducing exporters’ currency exposure and transaction costs. But it also resonates with an official desire that the currency’s importance to the global economy will grow in line with China’s own economic power.
This shift in attention towards G2 may not last long. There is an equally important, but less well-observed, change taking place. It is a change that will strain China’s foreign relations with the emerging markets and make the argument for a stronger renminbi even more compelling.
China’s exports to emerging economies have surged. The value of shipments to Africa, Latin America, and the Middle East has risen from $38bn to $192bn (€137bn, £116bn) in the past five years. In fact, China recently overtook the US as the world’s largest exporter to the Middle East.
Indeed, it is increasingly common for Chinese exporters to distinguish between their traditional markets of Europe and the US on the one hand, and China’s domestic market and the emerging markets on the other. So, even as the world looks to China’s market as a potential saviour from today’s economic crisis, Chinese exporters are turning to the emerging markets in the same fashion.
It is not hard to find hard evidence on the ground of the change. I recently spoke to the Beijing Furniture Manufacturers Association, whose female president donned a black abaya to visit Saudi Arabia in March. She was taking part in just one of many Chinese trade missions to the Middle East. Chinese porcelain sellers in Dubai, meanwhile, talk of importing less blue porcelain, popular with European buyers, and more red, among which is preferred by Arab buyers.
The decision by Chinese exporters to look to the emerging markets in part reflects economic problems at home. Export manufacturers face intensifying domestic competition. The local media frequently quote factory owners as saying that it is easier to sell goods in other emerging economies than it is at home. So, the rise in China’s exports to countries such as Brazil and Egypt underscores the challenges faced by domestic manufacturing – in particular, overcapacity and thin profit margins.
The policy response to these economic challenges has only accelerated the rise in exports.
The recent hikes in export rebates of value added tax, for example, have typically targeted the type of low-cost goods, such as textiles and furniture, that are popular in the cost-conscious emerging markets. So, whereas VAT export rebates once spurred exports to Europe and the US, especially during the last global downturn in 2001, they are now spurring exports to emerging economies.
However, what is good news for China is not always good news for the rest of the world, as the surge in exports has meant factory closures in emerging economies.
The Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry recently noted that two-thirds of small and medium-sized enterprises are suffering from the sudden rise in imports of Chinese capital and consumer goods. Syria’s government imposed tariffs on Chinese textile imports in response to rising factory closures in Aleppo, the country’s historic centre for textile production.
China’s focus on the G2 is important. But its focus on the emerging economies may soon steal the spotlight.
The argument for a stronger renminbi is even more compelling as a result of these changes. Chinese low-cost producers compete more directly with producers in emerging economies, increasing the risks of factory closures and job losses. Moreover, many governments in the emerging markets do not have sufficient fiscal resources to pay unemployment benefits or to fund economic reform.
Watch for China to increase its capital flows to the emerging markets to placate critics. Aid flows are already rising. Private direct investment may follow, especially as a way to circumvent trade protectionist measures. Rebalancing at home will also raise the cost of domestic production and spur more investment abroad, not just in Asia, but further afield.
The G2 is a symbol of China’s rise as an economic power. However, the country’s relations with the emerging world will be more instructive in how it intends to wield that power.
The writer is chief China economist for The Royal Bank of Scotland and author of The New Silk RoadCopyright The Financial Times Limited 2009



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